Countdown Iran

I really hope war can be avoided in Iran. First of all, the U.S. forces would likely find it difficult to mount a significant ground attack given the geographical layout of Iran and the presence of so many of our forces in Iraq. But also the conflict would likely widen, drawing in other regional actors. Hezbollah, Iran's proxy in Lebanon, would no doubt use this opportunity to start sending missiles into Israel. And there's no telling what Syria would do.

I'm of the tentative belief that a U.S. attack could actually unite the pro-U.S. among Iran's population against us, as they rally around their flag. Still, I tend to think it's a truly bad idea for the long run to allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons, and force might be the only deterent given the current leadership. I pray, though, that U.S. leaders such as Rice are exhausting all other possibilities, including attempting to exploit the fissures in Iran domestic politics that Amir Taheri points out. And I hope that the U.S. starts to give more concentrated and explicit backing to pro-democracy forces within the country. If war starts at least partly on account of their activities and then we're drawn in, our support will have an added legitimacy.

While Saddam Hussein, due to his secularist credentials, was unable to solidify completely Muslim opinion and support in his hour of peril, you can bet that the fundamentalist Ahmadinejad will have no problem convincing people of his religious fervor and conviction.