Stakes in Michigan

Here's an interesting article by Steve Kornacki on the stakes involved in the Michigan republican primary (HT: Real Clear Politics). I think he's likely spot on with his analysis of the result of a McCain win:

McCain, meanwhile, would be ideally positioned to gobble up broad support from the G.O.P.’s rank-and-file masses in the next wave of primary and caucus states. They may have lukewarm feelings for McCain, but they feel no more affection for the rest of the G.O.P. field. And many of them are anxious to stop Huckabee, whom they see as a certain November loser. By getting rid of Romney, McCain would be able to lay claim to these Republicans, which in turn would make him the runaway favorite in Florida and most of the big states that will vote on February 5. He also has a fighting chance in South Carolina, which will vote this Saturday, where he and Huckabee now run even.

Overall, Kornacki and others are seeming to embrace the idea that a McCain win would simply the Republican nomination process, while a Romney--or Huckabee for that matter--win would spawn chaos. Here's his ultimate scenario should McCain lose, one I heard from a McCain supporter on TV earlier today (no coincidence, I am sure):

But even then, it’s doubtful the Republican race would be settled on February 5, raising the legitimate possibility of a brokered convention—a stunning prospect for a party famous for settling its nomination fights with speed and order.

Electoral politics is about strategy just as much as substance, so it's certainly not out of hand to raise such a hypothetical, but I'm not so sure that a Romney win would inexorably lead to a brockered convention. Should McCain lose--and perhaps worse than expected--momentum that had been going McCain's way could shift again toward Romney and this, on top of a strong showing in South Carolina, could bode well for the former Massachusetts governor and remind Republican faithful of their ambivalence toward McCain.